Chido
Open Innovation Consultant
Chido works to make data more engaging and insightful, empowering strategic decisions. She has extensive experience in the built environment and urban management, circular supply chains, and AI applications. She is dedicated to navigating AI transformations in a way that creates more winners than losers.
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The transitions we are waiting for are not waiting for us: why Chido believes that research gets us moving.
Europe is yearning for change. Climate goals, energy issues, digital autonomy, and (inter)national security fill heads and boardrooms alike. Many organizations know that change is happening, but find it difficult to manage it. The step from waiting to moving along to actively shaping a transition requires work.
How transitions really happen
Frank Geels (2002) argued that transitions occur at three levels: landscape, regime, and niche.
Regime = the established system that provides stability in how things are done, such as industries, infrastructures, regulations, user practices, cultural significance, and scientific knowledge.
Niches = places where innovations emerge; think new technologies and startups.
Transitions occur when niche innovations break through the regime and become integrated into how things are done. Not just as a new product, but as a new normal. This theory is evolutionary: Geels described what he saw happening over time, and the processes that caused each transition:
Technological substitution: a niche technology replaces existing technology. Example: the iPhone replaced the Blackberry; Google replaced encyclopedias.
Regime reconfiguration: the system adapts by partially incorporating innovations. Example: IoT uses both Bluetooth and Wi-Fi; energy transition added renewable resources, while coal and oil still exist.
Transformation: regime actors change course under external pressure, without a crystallized niche solution already in place. Example: Dutch water management evolved from ever-higher dikes to the “room for the river” strategy. The change was driven by existing water authorities, not radical alternatives.
De-alignment and re-alignment: a major shock disrupts the regime, after which multiple niche solutions compete until a new regime emerges.
Example: the war in Ukraine shook up the European defense sector; drones and dual-use tech are now widely deployed.
It is not enough to wait for the most impactful technologies to emerge on their own. Impact is intentional and increasingly mission-driven.
Chido's view of transition: it begins with the right questions
I believe research is the backbone of any serious transition effort. Intentional change-a “mission”-rests on research. To minimize wasteful choices and determine the right direction, research is essential.
Even before you set an innovation direction or budget, organizations should ask themselves:
- What innovations are emerging at the niche level that are relevant to my goal, and what impact will they have today and five years from now?
- How are dominant market players organized, and what regulations and practices shape the regime?
- In what direction is the current landscape pushing my organization/technology?
These are not abstract questions; they determine whether you are investing in the right solution, at the right time, in the right ecosystem. Mistakes are expensive. Getting it right is how you lead.
Why we have a Tech Discovery team - an accelerator for all transitions
nlmtd already brings deep expertise in key transitions: energy, mobility, public services, people & organization. What is needed to accelerate those transitions effectively is to understand where you are now and where you want to go. A mission is needed.
That’s where Tech Discovery comes in.
Using both quantitative and qualitative research methods, we help organizations answer the questions that drive their direction:
- Which technologies are really worth investing in?
- What is promising but not yet ripe?
- How do we build an ecosystem around a solution, rather than integrating yet another isolated technology that solves one problem and creates three new ones?
We bring research and strategic clarity to the work already underway. We help organizations understand the regime and master the niche. Together, we design the mission your transition really needs.
Theoretical reference: Geels, F.W. (2002). Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: a multi-level perspective and a case study. Research Policy.
